Last year’s Oscar predictions didn’t go as planned. And by that I mean putting all of my eggs in the basket of A Star is Born probably wasn’t the play. Nevertheless, I’m back with the MEGA blog for the third consecutive year with some takes, snubs and winners.
I love the nominations this year. I love them because there’s none of them that I hate. It’s a good crop of deserving movies. For the first time in the history of the MEGA blog, I don’t think I’m going to have enough to rage about on Sunday night. There isn’t a Bohemian Rhapsody that has a legitimate chance of winning best picture. There are snubs, but I don’t think any of them were as egregious as people have been making them out to be. This was a damn good year for movies, and I think the Academy will have chalk selections. But the beauty in filmmaking is that it’s completely subjective. When it comes to your opinion on a movie, there’s no right or wrong (unless it comes to the Star Wars prequels), there are only conversations. I love talking to people about what they see and what they recommend because there’s always something they picked up on that you didn’t.
Without much to complain about, this should be a relatively appreciative recap of this year’s Oscar nominees. This is a NO SPOILERS blog because I believe if you intentionally spoil something you should have to fill gas tanks for the rest of your life. If I recap and predict a category, I have seen every movie. I’m not going to pick winners in categories I haven’t seen all of the nominations. I will give a will-be winner, should-be winner, darkhorse and a snub for each category. Here it is, the 2020 Oscars MEGA blog.
BEST ACTRESS
Nominations: Cynthia Erivo: Harriet, Scarlett Johanson: Marriage Story: Saoirse Ronan: Little Women, Charlize Theron: Bombshell, Renee Zellweger: Judy
Who should win: Renee Zellweger
Who will win: Renee Zellweger: Did you see Judy? Probably not because nobody did. It’s made for olds who hate millenials on their snapface apps. But let me tell you something, I had a blast watching this movie. And the only reason it wasn’t a waste of time was because of Renee Zellweger. She did all of her own singing, which is stunning because her singing was incredible. This movie has its problems, but it’s not because of the leading role. She’s a stone-cold lock to win, and she should.
Darkhorse: I think if there is an underdog that has a fighting chance, it’s Johanson. Of her personal-best year in films, Marriage Story was hands-down her best performance.
Snubs: Lupita Nyong’o: Us, Florence Pugh Midsommar: It’s a shame that Us didn’t get more love, but there are few places in this field to put it. However, a best-actress nomination for Nyong’o would’ve fit. She was terrifying in the best way. I thought she was better than Theron and Ronan in their respective movies. The same can be said about Florence Pugh and Midsommar. Both films aren’t traditionally an Oscar-nominated movie, but they both felt unique in a cluttered horror catalog. (Note: I have not yet seen The Farewell but everybody said it was a snub so here it is)
BEST ACTOR
Nominations: Antonio Banderas: Pain and Glory, Leonardo DiCaprio: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Adam Driver: Marriage Story, Joaquin Phoenix: Joker, Jonathan Pryce: The Two Popes
Who should win: Adam Driver: This is a hot take, but I think Driver turned in the best performance of the year from any actor from any category. Phoenix is the runaway favorite, but I thought Driver’s role was harder to do. With a character like the Joker, you have leeway in the audience’s mind because he’s not real. For Driver, millions of people can resonate with him as a symbol of divorce. He was perfect when he had to be while Phoenix was perfect when he had slack to work with.
Who will win: Joaquin Phoenix: Phoenix is cleaning up this award at all of the other award shows, and he’s deserving. I do think Driver should win, but Phoenix did something I didn’t think any actor could do, and that was get the same respect in the Joker character that Heath Ledger had. That, in itself, is enough of a reason for me.
Darkhorse: Leonardo Dicaprio: I think the timing of this movie is going to hurt it more than it should. Summer movies often get lost with award push happening in November and December. He was excellent and, for most of the year, the heavy favorite to win.
Snubs: Taron Egerton: Rocketman: This one doesn’t make sense to me. Egerton was a billion times better than Johnathan Pryce. I thought Rocketman had an outside chance to get nominated for best picture because Egerton was so good. He basically did everything Zellweger did in Judy, but it was in a blockbuster movie. That’s one of the things wrong with the Oscars right now. They HATE blockbusters, and it’s a shame when a big name turns in an excellent performance in a big-budget movie and doesn’t get the nod.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Nominations: Kathy Bates: Richard Jewell, Laura Dern: Marriage Story, Scarlett Johanson Jojo Rabbit, Florence Pugh: Little Women, Margot Robbie: Bombshell
Who should win: Laura Dern
Who will win: Laura Dern: I think this is another easy pick. I don’t think I’ve hated a character but loved a performance more than Dern’s this year. I don’t have a whole lot more I can say about it.
Darkhorse: none
Snubs: Laura Dern: Little Women: I didn’t have a lot to say because I wanted to expand here in the snubs. I thought Dern turned in the first and third best performances of the year. For as much as I hated her in Marriage Story, she made me smile ear-to-ear in Little Women. I thought she was more deserving than Robbie and Pugh in this category, but it’d be weird to nominate her twice.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Nominations: Tom Hanks: A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Anthony Hopkins: The Two Popes, Al Pacino: The Irishman, Joe Pesci: The Irishman, Brad Pitt: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Who should win: Brad Pitt
Who will win: Brad Pitt: After seeing him in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, I thought there was a chance that he could win best actor, in Ad Astra and supporting actor in this. Ad Astra was a bit of a let-down, but he killed this role. This is another no-brainer for the Academy. One of my favorite performances of the year.
Darkhorse: Joe Pesci: I could see this being the category The Irishman wins something. Pesci is hanging it up after this year, and he was a delight in this, and if the Academy wants to do a big-shock moment, this is one to look out for. What better way to end a career than with some hardware to bring home.
Snubs: Shia LeBeouf: The Peanut Butter Falcon: I wanted this movie to get a nomination so bad. This is the only category it would’ve fit. LaBeouf’s character development was heartwarming.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Nominations: Knives Out, Marriage Story, 1917, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite
Who should win: Marriage Story: This award presents the best original story written. It’s also rare that the winner of best picture wins best original story. That being said, I’d cast my vote to Marriage Story. My parents are still together, and I had a fairly easy childhood, so I can’t speak on behalf of those that went through a divorce. But this script made me feel, what I believe to be, a fraction of the pain that those people go through. And for a movie, that’s pretty incredible.
Who will win: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood: I feel good about my best picture pick, which means that it won’t win original screenplay. I think Quentin Tarantino has the credibility and the cast that boosts his chances for this award. All five selections would be understandable winners. In my opinion, this category is one of the hardest to pick. In Vegas, 1917 is a 50-1 underdog as well, which is surprising because its the favorite to win best picture.
Darkhorse: The only one that could be considered a dark horse would be Knives Out because it doesn’t have any nominations in major categories. Then again, it’s such a well-written movie, and I think the Academy recognized that. I’d be surprised if it won, but it wouldn’t be undeserving.
Snubs: Uncut Gems: I can’t believe this didn’t get any Oscar love. However, looking at the field for this category, it makes sense why it wasn’t nominated. I think the history of Adam Sandler has hurt its chances because this is a damn good movie that is worthy of a major nomination.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Nominations: Joker, Jojo Rabbit, Little Women, The Irishman, The Two Popes
Who should win: Jojo Rabbit: I think this is clearly the best-written movie of the bunch if you look at the melting pot of elements it has in its script. Waititi found a way to make Hitler an acceptable character on screen. In today’s social climate, that’s a fine line to walk across. I love the sudden twists of storytelling that somehow move so effortlessly.
Who will win: Joker: This is easily my biggest longshot pick of the group, but I think if anything crazy happens it’s going to be in the screenplay categories. Todd Phillips got 11 nominations, the most of any movie this year, and he probably takes this one home. I don’t think anyone will complain about it either. He wrote a role that fit Joaquin Phoenix perfectly. It’s such a complex character with a rabid audience that was ready to hate it for not being Heath Ledger. Hooper found a way to separate the two and got people talking about the mental health elements this movie touches on. It’s a beautifully disturbing movie.
Darkhorse: Little Women: I think this has a chance because Greta Gerwig found a way to modernize this dull story. It felt old and new at the same time. That doesn’t happen by accident, but instead by a well-written script.
Snubs: Hustlers, Rocketman: Two gritty movies, both insanely better than The Two Popes. I would’ve also given the nod to Rocketman over The Irishman as well. I was shocked that either of these movies didn’t get the recognition they did, The Irishman and The Two Popes are safe picks that were made for the Oscars.
DIRECTING
Nominations: Martin Scorsese: The Irishman, Todd Phillips: Joker, Sam Mendes: 1917, Quentin Tarantino: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Bong Joon-Ho: Parasite
Who should win: Bong Joon-Ho: I’m fine with either Mendes or Joon-Ho taking home a win here, but I think Parasite is a better movie, therefore he should win. I think this category could also be a consolation for the best-picture runner-up.
Who will win: Sam Mendes: For the same reason it’s going to win cinematography, directing a movie in one concurrent scene is such an accomplishment that it basically locks up this award. I think Bong Joon-Ho has a case for Parasite, but it’s hard to ignore the cinematic achievement that Mendes accomplished. I think of this movie as kind of a runner-up to best picture. I think it’s also strange that they only allow five nominations. I think this one should be opened up to all best picture nominations.
Darkhorse: the field: I’d be surprised if Mendes didn’t win best director after winning the award at the Golden Globes. Even Scorsese is deserving of this one for how intricate that long-ass movie was.
Snubs: Greta Gerwig: Little Women: It’s hard to say she’s a snub over this loaded field, but I would’ve liked to see her get a nod. Again, there isn’t one director I’d put her over, but if she were in the field, she’d have a case for the win outside of Mendes.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Nominations: 1917, The Lighthouse, The Irishman, Joker, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Who should win: 1917
Who will win:1917: Man, this seems like the easiest one. If I were betting on the Oscars, I would consider putting my left leg on 1917 for cinematography. I think this is the biggest lock of the night. The one-shot sequence mixed with the bleak feeling you get from the visual aspects makes the movie what it is. I think other cinematic achievements would have a shot in other years, but there’s just no way 1917 doesn’t take home gold here.
Darkhorse: none, although shoutout to The Lighthouse for being a weird-ass movie that got some recognition.
Snubs: This is a category where I thought the Academy could’ve had some fun with the other four nominations outside the clear winner. I wanted them to give movies like Avengers: Endgame, Rocketman, Midsommar, Spider-Man: Homecoming, Cats….. (sorry).
BEST PICTURE
Best picture is going to be a little different than the rest of the categories in this blog. Three years ago, I started listening to Lights, Camera, Podcast, which then turned to Lights, Camera, Barstool. They rate every movie on a scale of 0-100, so naturally, I did the same. For best picture, I am going to give my ratings for the nine films. In the end, I will also put my top-ten best and favorite movies of the year.
9. FORD V. FERRARI 88/100
Of all the movies nominated for best picture, this is the one I am the most surprised about. It’s not a bad movie. In fact, it’s actually quite enjoyable, but the Academy likes to tout itself for being socially progressive. It has big performances from big names (Matt Damon and Christian Bale), but it doesn’t pack a meaningful punch as the others did. Cinematically speaking, it’s rather stunning. The visuals are breathtaking at times, which is easily the best part of the movie. I think it lacks emotion. It hits hard in some spots, but biopics are supposed to hit hard in stories like this. It was hard to feel anything.
8. The Irishman 89/100
Man, I didn’t have a great time watching this, but objectively speaking, it probably deserves a nomination. The performances carry it. Robert De Niro, Joe Pesci and Al Pacino are characters you get lost in over the ridiculously long runtime. I loved the ending and the interpersonal conflict with the protagonist. But I can’t sit here and say I had a fun time watching this three and a half hour movie. Even if they slice off a half-hour of it, I don’t complain, but if you make a ridiculously long movie when there are scenes to cut out, that’s frustrating as a viewer. I thought the CGI was iffy at best. I’ve seen several people disregard the visuals, and that’s okay, but I love a well-made movie from a technical standpoint. Of all the best picture nominees, this is easily the worst. However, The Irishman is carried by its in-depth story and master-class performances.
7. LITTLE WOMEN 89/100
I freaking love this movie. I think I had an ear-to-ear smile for 80% of it when I was in the theater. I was also the youngest person in the theater by a billion years. This is the classic pick for the olds to root for. Let’s be honest, Little Women is a boring-ass story. It’s been done before, and it will probably be done again. Greta Gerwig modernized this movie to make it feel old and new at the same time. She’s one of the best directors on the planet for a reason. I thought the performances were okay for the most part, but Saoirse Ronan was a delight. Laura Dern will get overlooked in this role for how good she was in Marriage Story, but she still killed it. This movie has its problems, but it’s a blast to watch.
6. JOKER 93/100
I’m so happy this movie delivered the way it did because it had all the reasons in the world to flop. It’s divisive, which is exactly what it should be. Some people absolutely hate this film, and I can see why they feel that way. It’s depressing and humanizing in a self-reflective way that makes your skin crawl in the theater. It’s ambiguous to the max. Joaquin Phoenix gets you lost in his character. I loved this movie for how uncomfortable I was. It’s not often that a film can give you an experience like that but still be at the level of the Oscars. I usually don’t factor in the social aspect of a movie when it comes to considering a winner for best picture. Still, Todd Phillips indirectly hits many elements of mental health that people need to talk about. I think it lacks in some areas of storytelling at times, but for the most part, it’s a home run.
5. MARRIAGE STORY 94/100
This movie wrecked me. I felt broken after watching this. Marriage Story is a movie that will punch you in the face while you willingly get up just to get punched again. Adam Driver and Scarlett Johanson were incredible. There isn’t really much to stay without spoiling, but those two scenes (you know which two I’m talking about if you’ve seen it) are two of my favorites of the year. Driver and Johanson are so damn good at what they do, and they were on full display in this movie. It’s a shame the Academy doesn’t hold Netflix original film in the same regard as ones released in theaters. I think the pacing was a little off at times. Sometimes it slowed down too much, and others they tried shoving too much emotion in too short of a time. Like I said before, Laura Dern was awesome. Also, Ray Liotta was unintentionally funny. I kept wanting him to break out into a Chantix ad at a very inappropriate time. But I digress. This movie is tough to watch but in all of the best ways.
4. ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD 94/100
This was an Oscar nomination the second the trailer dropped. Brad Pitt, Leo Dicaprio and Margot Robbie. Absolutely loaded cast with one of the best directors in the world, Quentin Tarantino. I liked this movie more the second time I watched it. I was able to appreciate the fantasy aspect more the second time around knowing the background of the Charles Manson and Sharon Tate saga. Dicaprio and Pitt were fantastic. I think for most of the year they were runaway favorites to win actor and supporting actor. This has a really good shot of winning, especially if it’s Tarantino’s last movie. I think it’s a three-horse race for best picture with Once Upon a Time in Hollywood being one of them.
3. JOJO RABBIT 95/100
I’m much higher on this movie than most people, but Jojo Rabbit was so bizarre in the best ways possible. I like weird movies. Sorry to Bother You was in my top five favorite movies from last year. Director Taika Waititi can’t miss right now. He took a precarious chance on this film working, and it hit on almost every level. If you consider it a comedy, it’s the funniest movie of the year, but it also has a gut-wrenching side to it. It’s hard to know what it was like being a German civilian during World War II, but Jojo Rabbit subtly shows the forced admiration of Adolph Hitler though his use of fear. Because of the risk, I don’t think this has a shot on hell in winning. But I had this as my fourth-best movie of the year and third-best in this crop. Roma Griffin Davis and Scarlett Johanson made the movie what it was. I didn’t love Elsa Korr’s character for parts of the film, but I’m being picky.
2. 1917 97/100
In any other year, 1917 would be the most unique movie in the field. The consecutive-shot technique Sam Mendes used might be the deciding factor for best picture. 1917 is gritty, but it’s also so flawlessly shot where it’s almost hard to fathom how much they put in this movie. You never get a chance to take a break, because the story doesn’t allow it. For some people, that might be a problem, but I like it when a filmmaker can keep my heart racing from start to finish. George MacKay probably gets a best actor nomination in a slightly weaker field, but there were so many good performances throughout the year that the snub is understandable. I have to be honest, I don’t like war movies. But the story in this one made it one of my all-time favorites. The cinematography puts it on another level. This is, without a doubt, the best theater experience of the year of all Oscar-nominated movies.
(BEST PICTURE WINNER) 1. PARASITE 99/100
There isn’t enough I can say about the job Bong Joon-Ho did when he made this movie. Before I saw it, a friend told me it feels like seven different genres shoved into one movie. Not only does it feel exactly like that, but all of it also works to near perfection. Parasite is a Korean-spoken movie with no superstar actors, yet it turns the best performance by a collective cast in 2019 by a mile. It’s a movie that makes you feel like most movies strive to get you to feel. It’s in subtitles (unless you speak Korean) but get over it. There will be times where you laugh out loud, followed by anxiety-ridden scenes that make you feel your heartbeat in your chest. It has EVERYTHING. And the ending, oh, man. It’s one of those endings that’s so perfect it almost gives you nothing to talk about with other people. Out of all the new movies from this year, I think if I could go back and watch one for the first time again, it’d be this one. I wish I had more to say than “go see it,” but you absolutely need to see this movie. And something so unique as this should win best picture in my opinion. I think it’s a shame that two movies like Parasite and 1917 can’t both win. If I have to pick, I’m going with Parasite.
BEST MOVIES OF THE YEAR
10. Knives Out 93/100, 9. Joker 93/100, 8. Midsommar 94/100, 7. Marriage Story 94, 6. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, 5. Avengers: Endgame, 4. Jojo Rabbit, 3. Uncut Gems, 2. 1917, 1. Parasite
FAVORITE MOVIES OF THE YEAR
10. Spider-Man: Homecoming, 9. Joker, 8. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, 7. Peanut Butter Falcon, 6. Uncut Gems, 5. Marriage Story, 4. Little Women, 3. Jojo Rabbit, 2. Knives Out, 1. Avengers: Endgame
Jared Rubado's Oscars blog 